10,000 missiles in a barrage - what ya gonna do?
There is a video:
https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1634y1g7KR/ and it's been discussed https://www.reddit.com/r/LessCredibleDefence/comments/1bx1clu/how_credible_is_this_david_goldman_claims_that/
Which has been picked up by westernsources in the last few weeks (April 2024). In this video it's claimed that a factory in China can create 1000 cruise missiles a day. Some people have poured cold water on these claims noting that careful translation says that "components for 1000 cruise missiles" can be created a day. It would be wise to think about what this might mean though.
First off these would be precision guided munitions - because why not? If you can build a self driving car, why not a precision missile? Secondly these missiles could well have fairly advanced features like stealth and electronic warfare capabilities - because.... why not? These are capabilities that are well within the reach of Chinese manufacturers. Probably these missiles will not be as stealthy as the very most modern munitions, or as resistant to EW, or as problematic an EW source as the most modern weapons, but they may well be very close.
There won't be 1000 of them though, there will be 750,000 of them. The manufacturing will run for 5 years (at least) and let's say that the normal rate of production is 500 a day, and let's say that there are quite a few down days. So 300 days at 500 missiles a year. For 5 years. That's 750,000 in the magazine.
Now, these have to get to theatre, but perhaps they are designed to be loaded into shipping containers and moved by train, and perhaps these containers can be rapidly unloaded into EV trucks for dispersal and use.
Perhaps on the west coast of China there are 75 batteries, each slated to hold 10,000 or so missiles, each equipped with a fleet of 50 firing platforms that can disperse with 20 or so missiles on them. So they will be able to fire 100 missiles a day, for 100 days. That would mean that Taiwan and defending forces would receive a barrage of 7500 missiles every day. Would there be any defence against such a barrage?
This kind of scale warfare though is fundamentally different. Obviously each of these missiles will be susceptible to a shoot down, but that would need 10,000 air defence missiles. The attacker also has an asymmetric advantage - if they get one missile through then air defence is damaged. There could be rapid attrition of air defence and then a collapse. If you lose the battle one day, then maybe the day after you are watching all 10,000 missiles knowing that you have nothing to fight them with.
Dreadnought was developed by a dominant power and enabled other powers to catch up. This time this development disrupts defence very differently. I believe that a key factor in restraining Chinese power has been the realisation that their forces cannot man advanced platforms at scale. There's no point using your shipbuilding capacity to create ships if you have no trained military sailors to man them. A trope that I am hearing a lot now is that states have to realise that the armies that they start a war with will not be the army that finishes the war - the highly trained and skilled troops are going to be dead in the first three months.
The scale approach acknowledges this - and embraces it. How will the west respond?
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