American Suez

 It's March 17th 2026, and it's early in the crisis to call, but the US, Israel, Iran war is increasingly looking like a strange parody of the 1956 Suez crisis. 

The differences between the build up to the crisis in spring 2026 and the buildup in Autumn 1956 are stark. Whereas before Suez extensive international efforts at diplomacy had failed, in 2026 they were reportedly progressing. In 1956 one of the aggressors, Israel was embargoed, in 2026 the target, Iran was sanctioned. 

But the parallel is what happens when one (or two) of the aggressor powers over extend and need support, and that support cannot, will not, come. In 1956 the UK and France needed the permission and complicity of the USA and the Soviet Union, and both were disobliging.  In 2026 the USA needs the European powers and China. 

Neither of those powers can come to the USA's aid, neither of them will. 

They cannot come because the USA has alienated both of them. There is no legitimacy or constituency in the Europeans or Chinese system for support. In the case of the Europeans, Canadians, Australians, and British, a government stepping into the Iran quagmire would be committing political suicide. It might be the case that previous regimes in the Anglo or even Euro worlds could have convinced themselves of the benefits of standing square with the hegemon, but those days have passed, and with their passing so all will to further the cause of the general West has ebbed away. The west has passed, in part, because of the ill-treatment, bullying and grandstanding of the USA's president, and the apparent collapse of the systems of government that have stood the USA in such good stead for a hundred years and more, but they have also passed because of the squandering and bankruptcy of the USA's power. 

The states of Europe and the Anglosphere have seen the collapse of the USA's manufacturing base, and assessed that the arsenal of democracy is no more. They have seen how it was that China has held its ground against the USA in the tariff war through 2025, and how now, the Chinese hold the levers of economic power. The calculus in the western pacific tilts towards China with every day that passes as its factories crank out another hundred or thousand strike missiles, and meanwhile the USA burns through interceptors and draws down its missile stocks across the world. Guam will be turned to a smoking ruin, Hawaii will be turned to a smoking ruin, Japan as well, if the USA attempts to thwart China in its backyard. Defenceless and rudderless the USA's forces west of Hawaii no longer have a purpose, no ship from the Pacific fleet will be able to travel within 500km of Taiwan, no submarine will be able to venture into the East China Sea. Now the position is irretrievable, now there's no story that takes the USA from here to any there that enables them to assert themselves in China's domain. 

As the hegemons power ebbs, so does its glamour. American democracy is threadbear, its culture is riven by racism and identity politics. American society is unkind and unforgiving. The life of a normal citizen of the USA has moved from aspirational to awful as wealth and income has concentrated into a narrower and narrower percentile of the populous. There's no attraction or future in the offer that the USA makes to the world in 2026. There are other deals to be made, other advantages to be had. Everyone can see that there's another game in town, in fact there are several, and they had better make them. 

On the other hand, the idea that China will bail out the USA is beyond risible, it's not even worth spilling ink over. 

Instead, the next step for China in this crisis is into danger, and potentially into the heart of darkness. 

It is possible that the USA will now make the calls that France and the UK didn't. When the night fell on their imperium they went (relatively) gently. Leaders that had been anointed in the blood and fire of the second world war chose cool reflection and eventual destitution. Trump is unbloodied and unbowed, his next step might be escalation. Currently, the IRGC is allowing Chinese and Indian bound tankers transit, loaded with gas, urea, and oil for the east, in return for yuan, electronics, rocket fuel, and precision machined goods. It is quite possible that Trump will impose an embargo of his own, choking the supplies that the CCP need to fuel their economy and the Indians need to feed their people. 

From what I know the CCP has not prepared its fleet for this eventuality. Thousands of kilometres from home it's not clear if they will have the power to contend with the Americans for rite of passage. But, if it comes to it, and if they try, or have to try, then this will be the most dangerous moment that the world has faced since August 1945. The loser of any confrontation between China and the USA in the Gulf will not be able to walk away and call it quits. For both sides that would be existential in the way that an expulsion of the USA from the western pacific wouldn't be. It's also worth noting that while China will not be meeting the power of the USA on its own terms it may be meeting the power of the USA when it's tired depleted, past maintenance schedules and low on ammunition. The Gerald Ford had a serious fire a few days ago, and many of the ships that the USA has deployed have been shown using their weapons for air defence and strikes. Chinese D55's have 112 cells, it's quite possible that they will have the ability to flood US fleet air defence, especially an air defence that has taken quite a few shots already. 

As someone said before, a storm's coming. I wish I could better prepare, but I feel the first drops falling and I have no roof.  

Good luck to you, who ever you are.